A faster transition is certainly the goer and that can be achieved by using government led initiatives over subsidies. A labour led coalition with the greens are more likely to implement initiatives like the Solar for Schools programme where a budget is allocated (~$25 mil) to install more solar in schools where their demand profile suits solars output more closely. As a leadership initiative this carries a heap of potential positive outcomes that can result in greater uptake as the results become more widely recognised – over and above the educational opportunities for the next generation. With EV’s on the rise, the natural mix of PV, EV’s EMS, batteries, Ai, IOT, P2P, blockchain & cryptocurrencies lends itself to establishment and operation of a secondary electricity market beneath the current retail market where PV users can sell their excess generation to their neighbors, friends, family, or a commercial organisation down the road at a rate negotiated between them, using a lines companies infrastructure to deliver it, transactions managed using blockchain and payments made using crypto-currencies like Ethereum or Bitcoin or lightcoin or solarcoin.
Its happening in other jurisdictions around the globe & this phenomenon is not only driving the uptake of both solar & wind turbines, but its allowing consumers to become far more engaged, become energy managers, more energy efficient and they don’t necessarily have to install solar to get the benefits but can still participate in the game. New York, regions in italy, spain, germany, japan, hawaii are some using this model now. NZ’s electricity regulator understands this model and its many implications & are currently consulting on such. It is their job to make sure that electricity is delivered to all consumers in NZ at a cost effective level by creating a more competitive market. This secondary market does exactly that.

Interestingly retailers get it too which is why they are all across solar & batteries – by either acquisition or setup of their own internal solar divisions. And they get this new potential market. Watch the new TV adverts from meridian, genesis and others…. there all about the choice, solar, and the future. This is an incredibly disruptive model and it is turning the centuries old electricity industry on its head – and NZ is not insulated from it.

Very careful consideration of what if any incentives are put in play is absolutely necessary to support solar. Firstly one must ask if the industry needs or wants support like subsidies. And for most who understand it – they don’t as they want longevity in their chosen careers and businesses. SEANZ has for years not supported FIT’s or payments at a retail rate from a retailer for excess generation. An industry that can grow organically and stand on its own 2 feet is a far stronger industry in the long term. Subsidizing solar means a government regulates to mandate retailers to pay for excess generation at a higher than wholesale rate. If a government can give it out it can take it away – as has happened over last few years in Australia. In NZ we are lucky we can learn from the many other countries who have been thru this and experienced the many issues – Australia, Japan, many states in the US, Spain, italy portugal, germany et al. The biggest issue is that altho subsidisation initially enables industry growth, as soon as the subsidy is removed the industry drops as a false economy has been created with false payments and the local economies come under huge fire because the demand has diminished & those employed in the industry over 2 to 4 years are left with no industry to work within. Classic example is Germany. At its height with a solar subsidised industry over 300,000 people were employed in the solar industry. Today less than 10% remain as the subsidies were wound back and out of play. And who wants to be responsible for the impacts of such.
This aside, the cost of installing solar decreases on average around 7% a year. This is reflected in the increase in uptake of solar in 2017 which is around 11.5% over 2016.